Probability to Bust on an Extra Card
If against any dealer upcard, you have 17-20, stand on a lower hand if the dealer possesses a bust card and let them bust. However, if the dealer holds a high card, you get nothing by bursting out.
The dealer has bust cards, and a player has a hard 13-16. Then the dealer has a higher chance of busting in blackjack. Standing on a lower hand will allow you to reap the benefits of your planned play.
Online BlackJack - probability to bust on an extra card
Hand Value |
Probability |
11 or lower |
0% |
12 |
31% |
13 |
39% |
14 |
56% |
15 |
58% |
16 |
62% |
17 |
69% |
18 |
77% |
19 |
85% |
20 |
92% |
21 |
100% |
The Dealer’s Probability to Bust
The dealer average bust rate is 28.36% on any given hand, and the dealer's bust cards are 4, 5, and 6. In a particular position, though, how do you decide whether you should hit or stand and wait for the dealer to bust? Your best bet is to analyze your bust-out rates and then stand only when your chances of breaking out are larger than the dealer.
Online blackjack - dealers probability to bust
Dealer’s card |
Probability when standing on 17s |
Probability when hitting on 17s |
Ace |
17% |
20% |
2 |
35% |
36% |
3 |
37% |
38% |
4 |
40% |
40% |
5 |
42% |
42% |
6 |
42% |
44% |
7 |
26% |
26% |
8 |
24% |
24% |
9 |
23% |
23% |
10 |
23% |
23% |